Predicted Age of 1st Marriage Using CDC Data

Publish Date: November 2013

I created an equation based on the CDC’s 2006-2010 National Survey of Family Growth Public Use Data to predict the likely age of a person’s first marriage.

You can type directly into the 2nd column and the age automatically updates. If you’re unable to, you can view the full Excel here. I don’t think it will work on mobile devices. The pre-filled numbers are the data averages.

I created an equation based on the CDC’s 2006-2010 National Survey of Family Growth Public Use Data to predict the likely age of a person’s first marriage.

(View the full Excel here)


(View the full Excel here)

Quick Notes:

  • Data is spotty for LGBT adults currently.
  • This equation doesn’t apply to those in serious relationships.
  • I couldn’t find corresponding US state to age of first marriage details though city vs non-city is taken into account. Here is the chart that tells you the median per state.
  • This is made under the assumption you’ll ever get married. Only 86% of females & 78% of males are married by age 40 (so there’s a slight chance, it’ll take longer or never happen.)
  • Income plays a big role, unfortunately corresponding data doesn’t exist but education & full time work is a viable substitute.

Comparisons In Gender:

Most of the questions are the same but three, which was surprising. What I found is that for every trigger that predicts a later age of marriage, women are impacted more than men. For example, every 7 premarital partners a women has equates to marrying on average 1 year later,  as opposed to a man in which it is 28 partners. Men do still marry, on average, later than women by about 2 years.

Confidentiality & Feedback:

I can’t see your answers and any answers you put in won’t save or be available anywhere. Please play around with this and let me know if something doesn’t add up quite right.